Communities Expecting Drier Conditions
Likely in Papua New Guinea, Timor-Leste, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Tonga, Southern Cook Islands, Samoa, Palau, and Fiji.
El Niño
What to expect and how to prepare.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a natural phenomenon which occurs when trade winds in the Pacific weaken or switch direction, re-directing warm waters towards the eastern Pacific. An El Niño event occurs every 2-7 years, usually lasting between 12-18 months. El Niño is not a singular, short-term weather event; rather, it is a long-term climate signal that can lead to changes in typical weather patterns. While climate change is not a direct cause of El Niño, it is likely to worsen the existing effects of El Niño events.
This page is designed to provide a snapshot of what to expect from an El Niño event, and how to prepare. It is important to note that different communities in the same country might have different microclimates, meaning that your community may experience the impacts of El Niño differently.
The overarching effects of El Niño will likely vary by country. Island countries in the Eastern Pacific, including Papua New Guinea, Timor-Leste, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, and Fiji, are likely to experience very high risk of drier conditions. In contrast, island nations to the West, including Micronesia, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, and Tuvalu, can expect wetter conditions. Eastern Africa is likely to experience substantially greater levels of rainfall, including in Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Uganda.
Below, we have provided a brief overview of what impacts you may experience from the 2026-2027 El Niño, including various preparedness measures to take in drier or wetter conditions. We focus on the countries in which Anglican Missions has projects, however much of the information is globally applicable. We have also provided additional research papers and articles for further learning.
This information is here to use as a tool; you know your community best, so use what is helpful and leave what is not.
Possible Effects of El Niño in Drier Conditions.
- Drought conditions. There are likely to be significant reductions in rainfall and extended periods of drought. Heatwaves and wildfires are likely to increase.
- Water shortages. Water insecurity is projected to intensify. Previously full rivers and streams may dry up or lose substantial water. Communities may have to gather water from further away.
- Reductions in crop yield. Drought conditions may cause poor germination and growth, lower yields, and more pests and diseases, decreasing crop production. Markets and economies may face greater strain.
- Increased disease. Conditions which favor mosquito borne diseases and other sicknesses might increase. This can increase the risk of Dengue, Zika, and Malaria.
- High temperatures in daytime, and low temperatures at night. A reduction in cloud cover will increase temperatures during the day, and decrease temperatures at night. All communities should be prepared for high risk of extreme temperatures, and communities at high elevations should be aware that frosts can destroy crops.
- Sea level fall. You can expect lower sea levels on average, which can result in coral bleaching, changes in fish movement, and reductions in fishery catch.
- Future risk of flooding and erosion. Following drought conditions from El Niño, dry grounds will increase the risk of landslides and surface flooding during next years’ wet season.
Key Community Preparedness Activities
Knowing how to prepare your community for the potential effects of El Niño will reduce its impact.
- Stay informed and mobilise. Monitor local weather forecasts and advisories. Contact your emergency management office.
- Repair water catchment infrastructure. Ensure that all water tanks, guttering, and filtration units are functional. Invest in more water storage when possible. Boil any water that is not known to be safe.
- Avoid wasting water. Save water wherever you can and use as little water as possible for washing and cooking
- Wash hands and maintain hygiene. The effects of El Niño result in a substantial increase in disease risk. You should be washing your hands frequently and maintaining personal hygiene. Keep children away from high-risk areas, such as standing water.
- Prepare for higher temperatures. Reduce travel and outdoor labour during peak hours of heat. Provide shade and extra water for crops and livestock. Wear sun protection.
- Maintain food supplies. Store any food you can for eating during drier periods. Support vulnerable community members with food stores.
- Do not burn rubbish or light fires. Dry conditions and elevated winds increase wild fire risk.
- Public Education. Share what you know with your community. Know how to stay safe from disease. Know the symptoms of heat stress, and seek early assistance.
Communities Expecting Wetter Conditions
Likely in Micronesia, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Tuvalu, Tokelau, Northern Cook islands, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Uganda, Palestine.
Possible Effects of El Niño in Wetter Conditions.
- Severe flooding and landslides. Very high levels of rainfall can quickly overwhelm local drainage systems. It can also cause mudslides and landslides.
- Agriculture and livestock damage. Excessive flooding can ruin crops and drown pastures, interrupting agriculture livelihoods and impacting local markets and wider economies.
- Infrastructure strain and collapse. Regular flooding can weaken and damage bridges, roads, and buildings.
- Sea level rise. Alongside increased ocean temperatures, average sea level can rise, providing excess risk of coastal flooding. This can also shift fisheries stock and impact fishing livelihoods.
- Increased disease. Conditions which favor mosquito borne diseases and other sicknesses might increase, raising the number of cases of Dengue, Zika, and Malaria. Floodwaters carry bacteria and can lead to severe disease, particularly in children.
Key Community Preparedness Activities
Knowing how to prepare your community for the potential effects of El Niño will reduce its impact.
- Stay informed and mobilise. Monitor local weather forecasts and advisories. Contact your emergency management office.
- Wash hands and maintain hygiene. The effects of El Niño result in a substantial increase in disease risk. You should be washing your hands frequently and maintaining personal hygiene.
- Clear ditches and drains. Ensure all paths where water flows are cleared of rubbish, debris, and overgrown plant life.
- Store and drink water safely. Repair and maintain water catchment systems and storage containers. Where possible, test water for contaminants. Boil any water that is not known to be safe. Raise water tanks and secure them tightly.
- Do not enter flood waters. Do not wade through flooding water; unpredictable currents flow fast and carry dangerous debris and disease. Keep children away from areas impacted by flood water.
- Secure coastal homes. Be aware of flood and erosion risk for homes near river banks or coasts. Reinforce vulnerable structures and ensure drainage is cleared. Evacuate if local authorities suggest that you do so, or if waters are approaching your home.
- Have an evacuation plan and a grab bag. Have a family and community evacuation plan. Know where the elevated evacuation point is, and maintain the path. Keep a grab bag on hand which includes food, water, lighting source, power source, first aid kit, and warm clothes.
- Protect livestock and crops. Move livestock to higher ground. Secure harvested food away from excess moisture and mould.
At-risk groups snapshot
Be aware of who is most impacted by the effects of El Niño, and do what you can to support them.
Women. Several factors make women more vulnerable to the effects of El Niño in both wetter and drier conditions, including: burden of care for children and older people, menstrual hygiene needs, cooking and nutrition responsibility, exposure to gender-based violence, and limited land ownership and voice in decision-making.
Older people and people with disabilities. These groups face additional obstacles to mobility, are often not included in decision-making and disaster preparedness planning, and rely on care-givers.
Children. Children rely heavily on caregivers, are often excluded from decision-making, and are at heightened risk of injury and disease if left unattended.
Ensure that these groups are included in every conversation. Each vulnerable person should have someone to support them through El Niño.
El Niño in Aotearoa
Likely impacts vary by region.
Aotearoa will experience both wetter and drier conditions.
The impacts that your community will experience may depend on where you are. Based on information from Earth Sciences New Zealand and past El Niño events, most of Aotearoa can expect warmer and drier conditions, while the Western and Southern coasts of the South Island are likely to be wetter than usual, as depicted in the map.
Across all of Aotearoa, we can expect a windier than usual spring accompanied by higher temperatures, which is likely to increase wildfire risk. To prepare your community, you can reference the above-mentioned preparedness actions. If you’re a New Zealander who farms or grows, you can check out the Ministry for Primary Industry’s advice on preparing for El Niño here.
Access our printable poster materials to hang up in your church and community. They are two pages, so print them front and back if you are sharing them as flyers, or one-sided to hang up.
There are two poster options depending on which conditions your community is likely to experience; either wetter or drier conditions. Note that different communities in the same country might have different microclimates, meaning that your community might experience the impacts of El Niño differently.
Printable El Niño Preparedness Resources.
El Niño Preparedness in Drier Conditions El Niño Preparedness in Wetter Conditions
You might be wondering...
Under normal conditions, easterly trade winds blow from east to west across the equator, pushing warm surface water toward Asia and allowing cold water to rise (upwelling) near South America. During an El Niño event, these trade winds weaken or even reverse. This allows the warm water to slosh backward toward the Americas, altering atmospheric circulation and shifting global jet streams
According to NIWA, El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a naturally occurring global climate cycle.
While El Niño is characterised by weakened trade winds and increases in sea surface temperature in the Pacific islands, the opposite is true for La Niña, which strengthens trade winds and lowers sea surface temperature in the Pacific islands. La Niña events are less frequent than El Niño events. Countries which experience drier conditions during El Niño are likely to face wetter conditions during a La Niña.
Yes! If we can answer any of your questions or offer additional information or resources, we would love to help. Reach out to our projects officer at phoebe@anglicanmissions.org.nz with any questions.
Learn More About El Niño
These resources provide more in-depth research on El Niño.
Hear from a Samoan Farmer about the Impacts of El Niño on Agriculture and how you can Prepare